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Key takeaways

The European restaurant chains market comprises businesses that own and/or operate multiple food service establishments. As chains vary in terms of pricing, quality of food offering and preparation, and level of service, we segmented the market into (i) fast food, (ii) fast casual, (iii) casual dining and (iv) fine dining.


The European food service market remains fragmented due to low entry barriers and the wide range of cuisines offered. However, industry executives note that COVID-19 triggered a consolidation wave in the market (interviews by Gain.pro). The restaurant chains operating at scale were better positioned to introduce multi-channel distribution and adapt to the new operating environment, consequently taking demand away from standalone establishments and taking over less efficient counterparts, often even forced out of business.


The sector attracts significant interest from financial buyers, with >50% of identified assets being sponsor-backed (September 2022). Investors predominantly pay attention to strong brand awareness, scalability potential, resilience and predictability of cash flows, and the ability to leverage technology in daily operations when looking for potential targets in the industry. Identified investors are most active in the fast food and casual dining segments of the European market, thereby attempting to capitalise on platform scalability (fast food franchises) and above-average market fragmentation (casual dining).


ESG issues predominantly revolve around environmental issues. In order to comply with increasingly demanding environmental standards, identified restaurant chains engage in various initiatives to lower their emissions, including local ingredient sourcing and the inclusion of meat-free alternatives on menus. In terms of social measures, players are starting to put more emphasis on salary levelling, introducing clearer career paths to workers and offering incentive programmes (e.g. attractive parental leave policies).

Company benchmarking

Market growth

Deloitte (May 2022) valued the European food service market at ~€399bn in 2021, down from ~€519bn in 2019 (-12.3% CAGR). The market is projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 and will reach ~€555bn by 2026, demonstrating a CAGR of ~2.9% in 2023-2026

Deloitte (May 2022) estimated that the share of full-service restaurants in the European food service market dropped to ~38% in 2021 (-3pp vs. 2019), while quick-service restaurants’ share increased to ~30% in 2021 (+5pp vs. 2019)

Technavio (April 2022) valued the global fast casual dining market at ~$234bn in 2021 and projected it to grow at a CAGR of ~12.4% to surpass ~$420bn by 2026

Positive drivers

Identified chains are well-positioned to gain market share from standalone outlets through (i) higher levels of professionalisation and operational efficiency, (ii) greater capacity to attract bank loans to finance growth and (iii) the post-COVID-19 market clean-up allowing locations to be acquired or rented at relatively low prices (interviews by Gain.pro)

Emergence of multi-channel “Restaurant 2.0” concepts at high footfall locations (interviews by Gain.pro), with significant growth opportunities coming from delivery (further accelerated by COVID-19). The larger the chain, the more economically viable it becomes to operate its own ordering platform and delivery fleet, which allows for the elimination of ~15-30% order commissions paid to third-party platforms (e.g. Uber Eats, Just Eat Takeaway.com)

Evident potential to improve top-line visibility and capitalise on more recurring moments of consumption through the introduction of loyalty programmes, including subscriptions, memberships, meal kits or virtual tastings (Square Payments, September 2021). For example, McDonald’s CEO stated that the introduction of loyalty programmes has driven more frequent consumer visits and incremental sales to the fast food chain (Diginomica, August 2022)

Negative drivers

Rising inflation taking its toll in the form of pressure on sales (i.e. consumers reducing discretionary spending) and bottom-line margins (due to increasing personnel, raw materials and utility costs). Specifically, the fast casual segment is the most vulnerable as their customers resort to cheaper fast food outlets or home cooking (Restaurant Dive, August 2022; interviews by Gain.pro)

Emerging competition from scalable non-restaurant players penetrating the addressable market. Illustrative examples in the convenience segment include retailers delivering ready-to-eat meals (e.g. Ahold Delhaize, Gorillas) and direct-to-consumer meal kits providers (e.g. HelloFresh, Gousto)

Ongoing industry-wide ‘Great Resignation’ trend translating into unprecedented churn rates in the hospitality market (ECJ, September 2022). This remains a major issue for identified restaurant chains, with ~50% of full-service, quick-service and fast casual operators expecting that recruitment and employee retention will remain key challenges in the foreseeable future (QSR, February 2022)

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Restaurant chains industry.

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