Industry research
Scope
Europe
Companies
137
Table of contents
Key takeaways
Company benchmarking
Market growth
Deloitte (May 2022) valued the European food service market at ~€399bn in 2021, down from ~€519bn in 2019 (-12.3% CAGR). The market is projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 and will reach ~€555bn by 2026, demonstrating a CAGR of ~2.9% in 2023-2026
Deloitte (May 2022) estimated that the share of full-service restaurants in the European food service market dropped to ~38% in 2021 (-3pp vs. 2019), while quick-service restaurants’ share increased to ~30% in 2021 (+5pp vs. 2019)
Positive drivers
Identified chains are well-positioned to gain market share from standalone outlets through (i) higher levels of professionalisation and operational efficiency, (ii) greater capacity to attract bank loans to finance growth and (iii) the post-COVID-19 market clean-up allowing locations to be acquired or rented at relatively low prices (interviews by Gain.pro)
Emergence of multi-channel “Restaurant 2.0” concepts at high footfall locations (interviews by Gain.pro), with significant growth opportunities coming from delivery (further accelerated by COVID-19). The larger the chain, the more economically viable it becomes to operate its own ordering platform and delivery fleet, which allows for the elimination of ~15-30% order commissions paid to third-party platforms (e.g. Uber Eats, Just Eat Takeaway.com)
Evident potential to improve top-line visibility and capitalise on more recurring moments of consumption through the introduction of loyalty programmes, including subscriptions, memberships, meal kits or virtual tastings (Square Payments, September 2021). For example, McDonald’s CEO stated that the introduction of loyalty programmes has driven more frequent consumer visits and incremental sales to the fast food chain (Diginomica, August 2022)
Negative drivers
Rising inflation taking its toll in the form of pressure on sales (i.e. consumers reducing discretionary spending) and bottom-line margins (due to increasing personnel, raw materials and utility costs). Specifically, the fast casual segment is the most vulnerable as their customers resort to cheaper fast food outlets or home cooking (Restaurant Dive, August 2022; interviews by Gain.pro)
Emerging competition from scalable non-restaurant players penetrating the addressable market. Illustrative examples in the convenience segment include retailers delivering ready-to-eat meals (e.g. Ahold Delhaize, Gorillas) and direct-to-consumer meal kits providers (e.g. HelloFresh, Gousto)
Ongoing industry-wide ‘Great Resignation’ trend translating into unprecedented churn rates in the hospitality market (ECJ, September 2022). This remains a major issue for identified restaurant chains, with ~50% of full-service, quick-service and fast casual operators expecting that recruitment and employee retention will remain key challenges in the foreseeable future (QSR, February 2022)
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