Industry research
Scope
Europe
Companies
42
Table of contents
Key takeaways
Company benchmarking
Market growth
The European modular construction market was valued at ~$24bn in 2021 and is expected to reach ~$32bn by 2027, demonstrating a CAGR of ~4.0% (PBC Today, November 2022)
Industry executives (interviews by Gain.pro) expect the Western European modular construction market to grow at a ~10% rate from 2024-2033
Positive drivers
High demand for time- and cost-effective construction methods driven by rising construction costs of residential properties and housing shortages in Europe. Modular construction projects require ~50% less time and ~75% less on-site labour than traditional construction, leading to a total lifecycle cost reduction of ~20% (interview by Gain.pro)
Environmental advantages of modular construction will support its adoption. Producing ~45% lower CO₂ emissions and less waste in comparison to traditional construction (Energy Post, July 2023; Building, June 2022), modular construction methods are essential for decarbonising the construction sector, which accounts for ~37% of global GHG emissions (United Nations, September 2023)
Growing end-market demand will push robotisation and industrialisation of volumetric modular construction, unlocking profitability and cash generation for highly levered operating models (interviews by Gain.pro). In addition, the growing fleet of reusable RBs with low payback periods will secure long-term cash flows for commercial and public players (Adapteo, 2019)
Negative drivers
Negative cultural perception, exacerbated by the adverse publicity of early prefabricated, projects could slow the development of the modular construction market (interview by Gain.pro). This is combined with regulatory constraints and misclassifications, which inhibit the scaling and pace of modular deliveries (PropertyEU, October 2023)
High start-up and fixed costs threaten the business viability during the ramp-up stage. While traditional construction is flexible to changes in project pipelines, modular players bear substantial production CAPEX and fixed factory workforce (interview by Gain.pro). Low utilisation rates can severely harm modular players’ profitability, as evidenced by the recent bankruptcy wave (Urban Land, December 2023; Building Design, October 2023)
Architectural customisation trend reduces the attractiveness of modular players for project developers. While modular construction relies on a high level of standardisation, developers tend to require case-specific design changes, thus eroding the overall value proposition (interviews by Gain.pro; McKinsey & Company, May 2023)
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